Fuling mustard (002507): Expected cost growth due to high base-based revenue growth exceeded expectations

Fuling mustard (002507): Expected cost growth due to high base-based revenue growth exceeded expectations

Investment Highlights: Event: The company released its 2019 first quarter report, and achieved revenue in 19Q15.

27 ppm, a 10-year increase3.

81%; net profit attributable to mothers1.

55 ppm, an increase of 35 in ten years.

15%; net profit after deduction is returned to mother 1.

54 ppm, an increase of 35 in ten years.


Investment Ratings and Estimates: We maintain our 2019-21 revenue forecast23.


0 billion, 31.

200 million, an increase of 20 each year.

5%, 17.

1%, 15.

6%, maintaining the forecast of net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-218.

3, 9.

9 billion, 11.

6 billion, an increase of 25 each year.

1%, 19.

8%, 17.

2%, the corresponding EPS predictions are 1 respectively.

05, 1.

26, 1.

47 yuan, the latest closing price of 19-20PE corresponding to 29, 24x, maintaining the buying level.

The high base has led to an increase in revenue, and the effect of waiting for channel strategy adjustments has become apparent: the operating income of the company in 19Q1 increased by 3.

81%, the rapid growth of the earlier 18 years has a significant and obvious replacement. We believe that the main reason is the base.

At the end of 17 years, because the long-term task was fulfilled in advance and the company took the initiative to control the goods, the channel inventory was low at the beginning of 18. 18Q1 company realized the rapid growth of the income side under the joint promotion of terminal demand growth and channel replenishment inventory; and 18Q4 companyThe pace of delivery remains stable, and channel inventory is also at a reasonable level, and the downstream demand still needs to grow steadily in 19Q1, but the company’s revenue end has grown significantly due to the high serial base.

In addition, the company expanded its clear strategic planning for channel sinking and special channel development in 19 years. Q1 is still in the start-up and promotion stage of multiple conversions. The effect of channel adjustment will take some time, so we expect the growth rate of Q1 revenue to be aboutThe low point before the age of 19 a year, Q2 is expected to achieve a quarter-on-quarter acceleration in income.

The release of cost dividends is the main reason for the increase in net interest rate. The decrease in the expansion of expenses and expenditures in a single quarter is mainly due to changes in the quarter: the company’s net interest rate for sales in 19Q1 was 29.

48%, a significant increase of 6 per year.

84pct, of which the increase in gross profit margin is the primary, and the decline in the sales expense ratio is the secondary cause.

1Q1 company sales gross margin 58.

14%, an increase of 6 per year.

96pct, mainly due to the obvious reduction in the cost of cabbage heads in 18 years. The 18Q1 company mainly uses 17-year-old high-priced cabbage head raw materials, and 19Q1 uses 18-year-old relatively low-priced cabbage head raw materials, so 19Q1 is close toThe cost dividend is the highest expected; looking forward to the future, the overall raw material procurement costs in 19 years exceeded the continuous downward trend, and it is expected that the gradual growth of gross profit margin in 19 years will still significantly increase.

1Q1 company sales expense ratio 20.

11%, a decline of 2 per year.

96pct, which is also one of the reasons for the increase in net interest rate, is mainly due to the change in the pace of expenses and expenditures during the quarter. We expect that the company will increase its market investment accordingly in the context of the continued cost dividend.Steady growth; 19Q1 management and R & D expense ratio 2.

86%, a decline of 0 every year.

25pct, mainly due to good cost control. The procurement of raw materials was good and the costs were high and controllable. The changes in working capital were mainly disruptive changes: the company’s inventory balance in 19Q1.

58 ppm, an increase of 32 per year.

95%, mainly due to the increase of raw materials in stock. The price of raw materials 武汉夜网论坛 continued to decline in 19 years, and the company’s procurement volume remained at a high level. At the same time, through the strategic cooperation model with processors and cooperatives, more raw materials and semi-finished products were locked in advance.The required raw materials have been locked to a high proportion, and the cost is worry-free.

From the perspective of working capital, the balance of bills receivable and accounts receivable at the end of 19Q1 was 42.05 million yuan, a significant increase from the same period last quarter, mainly due to the company’s cooperation with channel expansion and sinking work to appropriately relax credit limits for some customers, so short-termThe quarterly budget value has increased, but the overall credit policy will still be adhered to, and most of the grant letters will be recovered within the year to control the risk of bad debts. At the same time, the balance of the advance account of the company in 19Q1 was 97.88 million yuan, a decrease of 37 from the earlier period.

03%, mainly due to the fluctuation of downstream values at the end of the quarter, and the overall payment policy has not changed.

Catalysts of previous performance: Channel expansion effect exceeds expectations, costs fall beyond expectations Core assumptions risk: Channel expansion progress is expected gradually, and channel and terminal acceptance are not up to expectations after price increases