BYD (002594) November sales review: short-term pressure and long-term upward

BYD (002594) November sales review: short-term pressure and long-term upward

Event Overview The company released a sales report for November 2019: the total monthly wholesale sales volume4.

10,000 vehicles, down 19 each year.

0%, an increase of 0 from the previous month.

4%.

Among them, sales of new energy vehicles1.

10,000 vehicles, down 62 every year.

7%, down 10 from the previous month.

7%; fuel car sales 3.

0 million vehicles, an increase of 43 in ten years.

9%, an increase of 5 from the previous month.

3%.

The cumulative sales in January-November 2019 were 41.

80,000 vehicles, down 7 every year.

3%.

Analysis and judgment: The continuous fluctuation of new energy vehicles is waiting for the new model heavy volume company’s November sales of new energy vehicles

10,000 vehicles, down 62 every year.

7%, down 10 from the previous month.

7%; cumulative sales from January to November reached 21.

60,000 vehicles, an annual increase of 7.

6%.

Of which, the sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid passenger cars reached zero in November.

80,000 and 0.

30,000 vehicles, each year by 47.

9% and 80.

0%, an increase of 5 from the previous month.

4% and down 39.

9%, sales of new energy commercial vehicles were 545, a year-on-year decrease of 59.

2%, an increase 北京桑拿 of 3 from the previous quarter.

8%.

Affected by the subsidy decline, the company’s new energy vehicle sales are still under pressure, but the conversion of new models continues to be listed. We expect the company’s new energy vehicle sales to bottom out in 2020.

Since the beginning of this year, the company’s listed new energy and new cars include e-series (e1, e2, e3), Song MAX DM, Tang EV, S2, Song Pro DM / Song Pro EV, etc., among them; e2 is listed in August 2019, August-OctoberThe number of traffic insurance registrations reached 62 / 1,301 / 1,893 vehicles, and it is expected to gradually climb up in the future; e3 was launched at the end of October, positioning it as a pure electric A-class vehicle, which was reduced to 10 after supplementation.

380 thousand yuan-11.

980,000 yuan; the new Qin EV was launched on November 7, based on a new e-platform independently developed by NEDC, with a range of 421 km and a reduction of 12.
.

99 thousand yuan-13.

99 million yuan.

Fuel vehicles continue to grow SUV performance is dazzling November fuel vehicle sales 3.
.
0 million vehicles, an increase of 43 in ten years.

9%, an increase of 5 from the previous month.
3%; cumulative sales from January to October reached 20.

20,000 vehicles, down 19 each year.

2%.

Among them, car sales were 0.

70,000 vehicles, an increase of 81 in ten years.

7%, SUV sales reached 2.

0 million vehicles, an increase of 188 in ten years.

7%, MPV sales reached 0.

30,000 vehicles, down 72 each year.

8%.

Among them, Song Pro was listed in June 2019, and the number of strong insurance registrations from July to October reached 2,886 / 7,233 / 9,366 / 9471 vehicles, respectively.

The pioneers of electrification have long been concerned about the increase in the city’s share, and gradually expanded the new energy vehicle business, transforming the continuous development of research and development. The company has achieved independent control of the new energy vehicle industry chain technology in power batteries and IGBTs, and improved it.The product line covers both pure electric and hybrid technology routes, from low-end to mid-end, from A00 to B, to meet a variety of consumer needs.

The supplementary tax rebate caused short-term pressure on the company’s performance, but in the long run, it promotes the advantages and disadvantages of the new energy vehicle industry. The company is committed to introducing the independent controllable advantages of the new energy vehicle industry technology and the entire product line to gain more market share.

Investment suggestion We believe that the company’s new energy vehicle sales volume is shifted to the launch of new models and the volume forecast is rebounding. It is expected to promote the independent controllable technology advantages of core components and improve product lines to gain more market share and maintain profit forecast: expected 2019-2021Annual revenue growth rate +5.

2% / + 13.

0% / + 13.

At 7%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers was -1.

9% / + 37.

9% / + 19.

6%, EPS is 1.

00 yuan / 1.

38 yuan / 1.

65 yuan, corresponding to the current PE 44 times / 32 times / 26 times.

With reference to the company’s historical PE range of 35-40 times, the company’s new energy vehicle sales will still be under pressure quickly, giving the company a 36-time PE estimate in 2020 (the variable is 38 times) and a target price of 52.

44 yuan to 49.

68 yuan to maintain the “overweight” level.

Risks suggest that the sales volume of the new energy automobile industry is lower than expected, the sales of new models are lower than expected, and the market share is lower than expected.